Keynote speech by Executive Vice-President Šefčovič at the ESPAS Global Trends Report launch event

EVP Šefčovič speech on the ESPAS Global Trends Report

Thank you Anders, and good afternoon, ladies and gentlemen.

With the European elections just around the corner, it is a natural moment for us to look back and reflect on the past four plus years of this political mandate.

It has been more of a rollercoaster than any of us could have predicted.

From the devastating global impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.

To the illegal Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the shockwaves it sent through our economy.

To the challenges posed by the rapidly changing geopolitical landscape.

And the threat to the competitiveness of our companies from unfair competition, production overcapacities, unlimited subsidies linked to local content requirements among our competitors.

These have all had a profound effect on the lives of Europeans. And, if nothing else, they have underlined the need for us to be as prepared for future shocks as we possibly can be.

Which brings us to strategic foresight.

As you know, back in 2019 I was given specific responsibility for embedding strategic foresight into EU policymaking. To strengthen our preparedness, and ensure more future-proof policies.

This has been a rather eventful mandate for me too, and I am now responsible for a wide variety of portfolios, not least the European Green Deal.

But strategic foresight has remained not only a key part of my work. But also a guiding principle in everything we do.

Over the past four years, we have achieved a lot together in using strategic foresight to build collective intelligence.

The four editions of our annual Strategic Foresight Report have helped us test and shape the EU's strategic objectives and priorities against future risks.

We have developed concrete tools to help us with our preparedness, such as the horizon scanning carried out by ESPAS experts which helps us identify new signs of changes which could impact our policymaking.

And we have made significant progress on participatory foresight cooperation.

Within ESPAS of course, but also with Member States, through the cooperation of our EU-wide network of Ministers for the Future, who will meet again in this format at the end of this month.

But it is clear that we will need even greater strategic foresight capabilities and long-term strategic thinking in the future, at both EU and Member State level.

And this ESPAS Global Trends Report, the fourth, comes at a crucial time for Europe, with many of the global trends previously identified intensifying in both strength and impact.

With the European elections just weeks away, we are once again witnessing a changing of the political guard.

As a Brussels veteran of 20 years, I have seen it all before. But circumstances have never been this challenging.

The new EU leadership will be confronted with important strategic choices from day one. That is where I see the biggest added value of the ESPAS report – highlighting areas where decisions cannot wait.

Our geopolitical strategies, the green transition, adjustments to our economic model, offering Europeans a new social contract. These are burning issues.

I think we can be proud of our work over the past few years. But it is clear that we need to constantly adjust our course, ask ourselves difficult questions, identify the key trade-offs, and make the right strategic choices.

Especially when we consider the increasingly hostile geopolitical environment we live in, something which is highlighted in the report. And something that the Iranian attacks at the weekend brutally illustrate.

We are seeing growing fragmentation, competition amongst big players, and a weakening of the rules-based international order.

As we have often highlighted, we can only expect this to continue in the years to come.

For decades, the EU has placed openness, international cooperation, and reliance on the multilateral rules-based system at the heart of its strategy.

However, the current context requires us to undertake a thorough reality check.

New geopolitical and technological realities require us to adapt our approach. That means responding to challenges, but also grasping new opportunities and building new partnerships.

In particular, we must invest in a truly European defence system. Over the past few years, Europe has shown its resilience in diversifying supply chains and reducing strategic dependencies.

But we have also had a spotlight shone on our weaknesses, such as with the struggle to supply Ukraine with the ammunition we had committed to deliver.

In overcoming these weaknesses, we need to retain our unity, which has been key to our ability to respond to challenges and opportunities alike over the course of this mandate.

We also need to work closely with the private sector when it comes to diversifying supply chains, de-risking our economy and investing in key markets.

This will be crucial for maintaining the competitiveness of our businesses.

And we need to further build our partnerships around the world, while seeking dialogue with those with whom we do not always agree.

Not least because global challenges like climate change and biodiversity loss recognise no borders.

Ladies and gentlemen.

Foresight is not about predicting the future. Rather, it's about building awareness about what might come, and how we can best prepare for it.

It helps us to build a future for Europe that we want, rather than one which is imposed upon us.

So I want to thank ESPAS and everyone involved in the preparation of this report. In fact, I've just shared it with my fellow Commissioners.

I believe it will provide valuable input for the next mandate as we seek to shape our Union in the years to come.

Thank you.