Purchasing Managers' Index for April 2024

Department of Service Statistics of NBS of China

China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing (CFLP)

1. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index

In April, the purchasing managers' index (PMI) of China's manufacturing industry came in at 50.4 percent, a decrease of 0.4 percentage point from the previous month, and has maintained expansion for two consecutive months, indicating the continuous recovery of the manufacturing industry.

In terms of enterprise size, the PMI for large enterprises was 50.3 percent, a decrease of 0.8 percentage point from the previous month; the PMI for medium-sized enterprises was 50.7 percent, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month; the PMI for small enterprises was 50.3 percent, flat from the previous month;

From the sub-indexes, among the five sub-indexes that constitute the manufacturing PMI, the production index, the new order index and the supplier delivery time index were above the threshold, while the raw material inventory index and the employment index were below the threshold.

The production index was 52.9 percent, an increase of 0.7 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the production activities of manufacturing enterprises continued to accelerate.

The new order index was 51.1 percent, a decrease of 1.9 percentage points from the previous month, still higher than the threshold, indicating that the demand in the manufacturing market continued to recover.

The raw material inventory index was 48.1 percent, flat from the previous month, below the threshold, indicating that the inventory of major raw materials in the manufacturing industry continued to decline.

The employment index was 48.0 percent, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month, indicating a drop in the employment climate of manufacturing enterprises.

The supplier delivery time index was 50.4 percent, a decrease of 0.2 percentage point from the previous month, still higher than the threshold, indicating that the delivery time for suppliers of raw materials in the manufacturing industry continued to decrease.

China's Manufacturing PMI and Sub-indexes (Seasonally Adjusted)

Related Indexes of China's Manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

2. Non-manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index

In April, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 51.2 percent, a decrease of 1.8 percentage points from the previous month, still higher than the threshold, indicating a continued expansion in the non-manufacturing industry.

By industry, the business activity index for the construction industry was 56.3 percent, an increase of 0.1 percentage point from the previous month; that for the service industry was 50.3 percent, a decrease of 2.1 percentage points from the previous month. From the perspective of industries, the business activity indexes for railway transport, road transport, postal service, and telecommunication, broadcast, television and satellite transmission services were within the high expansion range of 55.0 percent and above; the business activity indexes for catering, capital market services and real estate were below the threshold.

The new order index was 46.3 percent, a decrease of 1.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating a decline in the climate level of manufacturing market demand. By industry, the new order index for the construction industry came in at 45.3 percent, a decrease of 2.9 percentage points from the previous month; that for the service industry stood at 46.5 percent, a decrease of 0.7 percentage point from the previous month.

The input price index was 51.1 percent, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from the previous month, indicating that the overall level of input prices used by non-manufacturing enterprises for business activities picked up. By industry, the input price index for the construction industry came in at 52.2 percent, an increase of 4.0 percentage points from the previous month; that for the service industry stood at 50.9 percent, an increase of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month.

The sales price index was 49.4 percent, an increase of 0.8 percentage point from the previous month, still below the threshold, indicating a narrower decline in the overall non-manufacturing sales prices. By industry, the sales price index for the construction industry came in at 48.7 percent, an increase of 0.3 percentage point from the previous month; that for the service industry stood at 49.5 percent, an increase of 0.8 percentage point from the previous month.

The employment index was 47.2 percent, an increase of 0.6 percentage point from the previous month, indicating that the employment climate of manufacturing enterprises rebounded. By industry, the employment index for the construction industry came in at 46.1 percent, an increase of 0.4 percentage point from the previous month; that for the service industry stood at 47.4 percent, an increase of 0.6 percentage point from the previous month.

The business activity expectation index was 57.2 percent, a decrease of 1.2 percentage points from the previous month, still within the relatively high expansion range, indicating that non-manufacturing enterprises remained optimistic about the recent market development. By industry, the business activity expectation index for the construction industry came in at 56.1 percent, a decrease of 3.1 percentage points from the previous month; that for the service industry stood at 57.4 percent, a decrease of 0.8 percentage point from the previous month.

Main Sub-indexes of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

Other Sub-indexes of China's Non-manufacturing PMI (Seasonally Adjusted)

3. Composite PMI Output Index

In April, the composite PMI output index was 51.7 percent, a decrease of 1.0 percentage point from the previous month, still higher than the threshold, indicating that the overall production and operation of Chinese enterprises continued to expand.

Annotations:

1. Explanatory Notes

Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is an index summarized and compiled through the results of the monthly survey of enterprises' purchasing managers, which covers every link of the enterprises, including purchasing, production, circulation and so forth. The PMI is one of the leading indexes commonly adopted by international society to monitor the macroeconomic trends and plays an important role in forecasting and monitoring. The Composite PMI Output Index, belonging to the PMI indicator system, is a composite index reflecting the changes in the output in current period of the entire industry (manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries). If the PMI is above 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is expanding over the last month; if below 50 percent, it reflects the overall economy is in contraction over the last month.

2. Statistical Coverage

The survey involves 3,200 samples from 31 divisions of the manufacturing industry in the National Industrial Classification of All Economic Activities (GB/T4754-2017), as well as 4,300 samples from 43 divisions of the non-manufacturing industry.

3. Survey Methods

PPS (Probability Proportional to Size) sampling method was adopted in the purchasing managers’ survey. Using the divisions of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry as the selecting strata, the sample size of each division is proportional to its proportion of the value-added of the division to the total value-added of the manufacturing or non-manufacturing industry. Within the stratum, the samples are selected according to the probabilities proportional to their principal business revenue of the enterprises.

The survey was organized and conducted by staff members of survey offices directly subordinated to the NBS of China, monthly through the Online Reporting System of NBS by sending survey questionnaires to the purchasing managers of the selected enterprises.

4. Calculation Methods

(1) Calculation Methods of Sub-indexes. The index system of the manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 13 sub-indexes such as production, new orders, new export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, purchase, import, purchasing price, producer price, raw materials inventory, employment, supplier delivery time, and production and operation expectation. The index system of non-manufacturing purchasing managers’ survey covers 10 sub-indexes including business activities, new orders, new export orders, existing orders, finished goods inventory, input price, sales price, employment, supplier delivery time, and business activity expectation. Sub-indexes adopt the diffusion index calculation method, i.e. percentage of positive answers in a number of enterprises plus half of the percentage in the same answers. Due to the lack of non-manufacturing compound PMI index, the international society often used business activity index to reflect the overall changes in non-manufacturing economic development.

(2) Calculation Methods of Manufacturing PMI. Manufacturing PMI was calculated according to five diffusion indexes (sub-indexes) and their weights. Five sub-indexes and their weights are determined in accordance with their leading impact on the economy. Specifically, new order index weights 30 percent; production index weights 25 percent; employment index weights 20 percent; supplier delivery time index weights 15 percent; raw materials inventory index weights 10 percent. Among them, the supplier delivery time index is a converse index, and contrary calculation is needed when combines it into PMI.

(3) Calculation Methods of Composite PMI Output Index. Composite PMI Output Index was calculated by weighted summation of the manufacturing output index and non-manufacturing business activity index. Their weights are determined by the proportion of manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries in GDP.

5. Seasonal adjustment

The purchasing managers’ survey is a monthly survey, the data of the survey fluctuates very much for the influences of seasonal factors. The released readings are all seasonally adjusted.